Giving Thanks This Season - Thanksgiving 2018

Giving Thanks This Holiday Season

Thanksgiving 2018 is upon us, and there can be no better way to reflect upon the blessings we Americans enjoy than recalling some of the great messages from leaders in our past.

As we celebrate Thanksgiving this season, let’s remember the moving words of former great statesmen, and the greatness of America for which they embodied:

Ronald Reagan’s Thanksgiving Day address, 1982:

“…I have always believed that this anointed land was set apart in an uncommon way, that a divine plan placed this great continent here between the oceans to be found by people from every corner of the Earth who had a special love of faith and freedom.”

 Two hundred years ago, the Congress of the United States issued a Thanksgiving Proclamation stating that it was “the indispensable duty of all nations” to offer both praise and supplication to God. Above all other nations of the world, America has been especially blessed and should give special thanks. We have bountiful harvests, abundant freedoms, and a strong, compassionate people.

 I have always believed that this anointed land was set apart in an uncommon way, that a divine plan placed this great continent here between the oceans to be found by people from every corner of the Earth who had a special love of faith and freedom. Our pioneers asked that He would work His will in our daily lives so America would be a land of morality, fairness, and freedom…”

  Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Thanksgiving Proclamation, 1933:

“…May we on that day in our churches and in our homes give humble thanks for the blessings bestowed upon us during the year past by Almighty God.

 May we recall the courage of those who settled a wilderness, the vision of those who founded the Nation, the steadfastness of those who in every succeeding generation have fought to keep pure the ideal of equality of opportunity and hold clear the goal of mutual help in time of prosperity as in time of adversity.

 May we be grateful for the passing of dark days; for the new spirit of dependence one on another; for the closer unity of all parts of our wide land; for the greater friendship between employers and those who toil; for a clearer knowledge by all nations that we seek no conquests and ask only honorable engagements by all people to respect the lands and rights of their neighbors; for the brighter day to which we can win through by seeking the help of God in a more unselfish striving for the bettering of mankind.”

 There is a lot to be thankful for this season.  Even those going through life’s difficult struggles remain blessed – for they were born in the United States of America.  Our firm wishes you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving this year!!!

 

State of the Market and Economy Report

2018: State of the Market and Economy Report

We are halfway through January, and this week the Ty J. Young, Inc.  Annual “2018 State of the Market and Economy Report” will be released as a “LIVE ONLINE EVENT.”  If you registered for the event on 1/18/18 and watched it online, or you watched it after-the-fact as a recording by request, then you heard the CEO’s talking points on (I) the index annuity industry, (II) the market and the economy, and (III) what to do for 2018.

I. State of the Industry

Despite the unprecedented upward surge in the stock market, more and more people are choosing principal protection products, such as the index annuity, for their portfolio.  Whether they (A) are moving some of their winnings over the last several years off the table; or, (B) they rightly fear that markets eventually change directions, and better to be safe with some, or all, of their money than sorry. They are now realizing we are in a mature bull market, and that at some point they need protection for their portfolio.

The Index Annuity industry, therefore, is showing strong and robust numbers given the market environment:

  1. $96.9 billion in annuity business in 2016 … over $100 billion in 2017.
  2. A.M. Best – the insurance rating agency – shows some of the strongest numbers recorded for the leading insurance carriers in the industry.
  3. Index annuity business has increased 4% or more each of the last 5 years.

 

II. State of the Market and the Economy

This beaten horse has long been dead – but the news is so good it bears repeating

The Stock Market has been going up for years since the 2008 banking collapse, but nothing like the first year of the Trump Administration:

11/22/16                              –              Dow 19,000         –             2 weeks after the election

1/25/17                                –              Dow 20,000

3/1/17                                   –              Dow 21,000

8/2/17                                   –              Dow 22,000

10/18/17                              –              Dow 23,000

11/30/17                              –              Dow 24,000

1/4/18                                   –              Dow 25,000

1/16/18                                –              Dow 26,000         –              Although it may have slipped back below 26K by the time we went to print.

  1. It is the GOAT of all bull markets: the Jordan, the Bird, the Andretti, the Brady, it’s Babe Ruth … by the numbers, it is the GREATEST OF ALL TIME!
  2. It has seen a 340% gain since 2009. Bigger than the 267% gain from 1946-52 … Bigger than the 229% gain from 1982-87 … Bigger than the 302% gain from 1993-2000.
  3. And it is not just the Stock market screaming upward, it has also been US GDP and the American economy! A) GDP is up; B) Imports up; C) Exports up; D) Earnings up; E) Revenue up; F) Employment up; G) Regulations down; H) The Tax Reform Act will lower your tax bill … don’t you just want to say, “It’s Morning in America” again!

 

III.       What to do for 2018?

With such great economic data, the market is just calling for you to put more money in … right?

Maybe, but as we are seeing with index annuity premium each year, not just our clients but nationally, people are intuitively realizing they need a safe option for a large portion of their portfolio – one where you go participate in the gains of the market, but none of the losses.

There are “3 Unique Investing Strategies” to help you achieve your portfolio protection plan:

  1. Buying Low and Selling High. This seems obvious, but it is unique because hardly anyone ever does it.  Most get caught in the “irrational exuberance” of the market – the herd mentality that drives you to keep buying even though the market has been going up for some time.  A good index annuity has out-performed the market in the last 10 and 20-year periods – isn’t it time to take some profits off the table while you are still … profitable?
  2.  Applying the ‘Rule of 100’ to your money. Most people are out of cash, they are FULLY invested in this bull market.  Many are buying bitcoin, watching the talking heads and looking for the next run up to Dow 35,000.  Hedging, asset allocation, even diversification … forget it, let’s roll the dice!   The second unique” strategy returns to fundamental principles of safety, with a reasonable rate of return.  That means applying the “Rule of 100” to your portfolio.  It’s a tried and true formula that is only unique because, like ‘buying low and selling high,’ no one ever does it anymore.  Whatever your age is, subtract from 100, and that is the percentage of your portfolio you should have in safer investment vehicles.  CD’s, Treasury bonds are safe, but the one with best historic average rate of return in the GIC – the “Guaranteed Insurance Contract” – known as the Index Annuity.
  3. Taking advantage of the ‘Bonus-on-Bonus’. The third and final unique strategy for 2018 is for existing Index Annuity account holders, and that is getting the “Bonus-on-Bonus!”  This strategy is simple – a client takes their available 10% penalty-free withdrawal from their index annuity and opens a new account with it, one which offers a bonus when funded.  That means an extra 4-5-7 even potentially a 10% bonus on your money (depending on the type of account opened).  The tried and true is always the best bet:  safe, simple, with a reasonable rate of return.

 2018 has started with the market and the economy continuing their flight to the moon.  Now is the time for unique strategies that are the safe, simple way to grow your money, with a reasonable rate of return.

Call 877-912-1919 to speak with our expert advisors at no cost or obligation!

Bull Market May Never End

Bull Market May Never End

One constant for the last 7 to 8 years has been the ever-increasing value in the U.S. stock market.  There have been hiccups along the way, but since the Dow hit bottom in March 2009, the market has been screaming to new heights every year.

The Trump election seems to have made it soar upward faster than ever before.  Just consider the data:

**Record high’s weekly, in some cases daily!**

11/22/16              –              Dow 19,000

1/25/17                –              Dow 20,000

3/1/17                  –              Dow 21,000

8/2/17                  –              Dow 22,000

10/18/17              –              Dow 23,000

11/30/17              –              Dow 24,000

By every measurable standard, this is the greatest bull market of all time!  It is the Tom Brady, Michael Jordan and Babe Ruth of money!  It is “The GOAT!”

We know this just by comparison. Consider these past bull markets:

1946-52                –              267% gain on the S&P

1982-87                –              229% gain on the S&P

1993-2000            –              302% gain on the S&P

2009-2017            –              330% gain on the S&P

Here are the reasons why the market continues its record-setting run, and some reasons why it may finally be ready to correct.

Top 3 Reasons the Market Remains in BULL Territory:

  1. The ‘Trump-Bump’. The Trump-Bump has many factors, some of which includes massive deregulation and the expectation of fundamental tax reform.  The tax reform bill has reached the conference committee between the House and the Senate, and seems poised for passage.  It’s best features include lower, flatter rates; cutting business tax rates; increasing child tax credits; and, eliminating loopholes.  It should be an economic boon for the country.
  2. The Rise of the ‘Non-Fundamentals’. The “Old Fundamentals” of Wall Street that analysts used to look for market trends included P/E ratios, the consumer price index, the rate of inflation, jobs reports, unemployment, and housing starts, among others.  All of these and more were, and some still are, important in trying to figure out the direction of the market.  But we developed the list of “NON-FUNDAMENTALS.”  They are more important now today than perhaps the old Wall Street numbers game and they consist of the big three: (1) Sentiment, (2) Safety, and (3) Strength.  Public SENTIMENTthe public BELIEVES in the economic-friendly changes Trump has promised. SAFETY – our system is “safer” than our global competitors.  Why?  We have the deepest capital markets, innovation, and the rule of law. And, STRENGTH –  despite the last 8 years and the drag on capitalism, the U.S. remains the strongest nation on Earth.  The dollar remains the world’s reserve currency (for now).  And keeping your money in U.S. markets is a smarter bet than China, Europe and elsewhere.
  3. The ‘old’ fundamentals aren’t doing so bad, either. Last quarter 70+% of corporations posted reported earnings EXCEEDING analysts’ expectations. Profits are up. Revenue is up. GDP is above 3% for 2 straight quarters and heading towards the best year in over a decade. Inflation is elevated from 1.9% to 2.2% this past month, but not a runaway problem like the early 1980s. Housing starts and sales are far and away back to pre-2008 levels in terms of pricing and market health and standard measurements of job growth and the unemployment rate are steady.

 

What are the reasons we could see a correction?  Most analysts have been shocked we have not seen a correction at some point over the last 8 years. History and reason dictate one should be coming soon.

What Risks to a Market Correction Could Bring the “Bear” Out from the Woods?

  1. What goes up MUST come down … right? History dictates we must have a correction.  This market has been supported by 8 years of money printing … 8 years of Fed Reserve easy money interest rates … 8 years of quantitative easing … This was artificial stimulation. Therefore, we have been due for a correction for some time.  Even a 5% correction will be a 1200-point drop on the Dow.
  2. The fundamentals don’t support a “forever” bull market. Some market fundamentals look good.  Others?  Not so much.  Consider:  Labor participation rate lowest in decades at 62.7%. Individual investor accounts cash holdings at an all-time low.  This means investors are “all-in” with no more cash to put into the market. Fewer companies in Dow, no diversity in stock purchases.  In 1997, there were 7300+ companies traded on the Dow, today there are 3600 and dropping.  Longtime analyst Mark Hurlburt has stated this means “…Harder for your money-guy to construct a broad-based, diversified portfolio that can perform better than broad-market index fund.”
  3. Geopolitical risks – the ‘known’ ‘unknowns.’ A)  China – you cannot trust their numbers or their markets in a communist state B)  Russia – what will the Russians do next in Eastern Europe or the Middle East C)  Europe – Europe’s most important player, Germany, has an election crisis and the continent is devoid of leadership D)  Middle East – this one requires no explanation E)  North Korea – this one also requires no explanation.

Those are just a few.

Analyzing the market for the last 8 years has been pretty simple – you just sat back and watched it go up, up, up.  The problem with a long bull market is that you can’t predict when the correction is coming, and the longer the bull runs, the deeper the bear strikes.  Losses will match or exceed gains when it turns south, and that can come at the worst possible time.  The smart money puts at least some of those gains into safe investment vehicles, in order to prevent a 2008-styled portfolio apocalypse.

Help us help you by calling now! Every single day, our advisors help people protect and grow their money. Speak with your Ty J. Young Inc. advisor today for no cost and no obligation. 877-912-1919.