Thanks to social media and 24-hour cable news, it feels like modern America lives in a perpetual news cycle … and a perpetual election cycle.
The most recent of the never-ending campaigns – the 2018 midterms – has concluded, and most of what was expected did not occur. There was no blue wave, the Republicans did not lose the Senate, and there were zero upsets that would leave you scratching your head.
While several House districts remain to have a final vote tally, it is safe to report as of this writing that the Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010. Their vote margin will range anywhere between 26 and 40 seats when the final vote counts are reported.
Some contests remain undecided and carry significant political interest, but do not change the balance of power in Congress. That includes the Georgia governor’s race. Stacey Abrams has refused to concede, although 100% of the precincts have reported their vote totals as of Wednesday afternoon and she trails by more than 1%. Counties in Georgia have until November 13th to certify their vote totals, and expect this to be a protracted battle for the next several days or weeks.
With the 2018 election now in the rear-view mirror, at least most of it, we can look back at the winners and losers from this past Tuesday and what it means for you:
I. Who are the top three election night losers?
- “Moderate Republicans take it on the chin”: More than 40 House Republican incumbents decided to retire rather than run for re-election … the highest numbers since the Civil War. Senators Jeff Flake and Bob Corker, both Trump critics, decided to step down. Moderate House Republicans Carlos Curbelo and Leonard Lance both tried to distance themselves from Trump – and got defeated rather easily. The mid-terms are about turnout, and you never win a race in a mid-term running from your base.
- “Progressive Democrats”: Beto O’Rourke, Richard Cordray … there are others, but every media darling who received an Obama visit and hundreds of millions of dollars from left-wing PACs and left-wing donors such as Tom Steyer – lost. And don’t forget Democrats who voted against Senate nominee Brett Kavanaugh – all took it on the chin in red states with the exception of Joe Manchin, who voted for Kavanaugh. There are still many progressives left in the Congress, and some even won Tuesday night, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and many candidates in California. There is no doubt that progressive money, progressive Hollywood, and the Obama machine are ascendant in the Democratic Party … they’re just not that good at winning votes from a majority of Americans, at least not yet.
- “President Trump”: This should be obvious, but the President’s party lost control of the House and his Congressional opponents will be ready on day one to launch investigation after investigation into his administration … including but not limited to impeachment proceedings. No longer protected by his Party in the House, this will make daily governance a significant challenge for President Trump.
II. Who are the top three election night winners?
- “Conservative lawmakers”: As strange as it may seem, red state lawmakers survived and in fact the Republicans won several Senate seats to expand their majority. The Democrats won House seats in the Midwest primarily as they did in 2006 – by selecting pro-life and pro-gun moderate-to-conservative candidates. Except in California and other blue pockets here and there, conservative candidates were the big winners from Tuesday night.
- “President Trump”: That’s correct. While the House will be pushing an investigatory, impeachment agenda, Trump’s losses are negligible compared to previous President’s … and none have contended with the media hostility he has engendered. Clinton lost 54 House seats in his first mid-term, and 9 Senate seats. Obama lost the all-time record of 63 House seats, and 6 Senate seats. Trump will have lost in the mid-30s when the votes are all counted, and actually picked up three Senate seats. All-in-all, it could have been MUCH worse.
- “The stock market and the economy”: Yes, things can change overnight, but markets like predictability, and gridlock is predictable. Lots of variables such as Fed Rate Hikes and trade conflicts with China, but in general, the stock market and the main street economy were winners with the election results from Tuesday night. There should be zero changes to the current low tax, deregulation policies at least for the next two years.
The election seems to highlight the polarization found on social media, and not the day-to-day blessings of living in America. There are always winners and losers in politics, but there should only be winning in your financial planning for the future. Call now to have one of our advisors discuss the safe, simple and reasonable rate of return options for your portfolio! (877) 912-1919