“The Great Debate … Round I”
Ty J. Young Editorial
Super Bowl-level TV audiences watched the first Trump-Clinton Presidential Debate Monday night, on September 26, 2016.
Historically, debates have played an important role in presidential elections:
1. Nixon-Kennedy 1960: Those who listened on the radio thought Nixon won. But TV magnified Kennedy’s performance and good looks. Nixon, with the sweating upper lip, never recovered.
2. Reagan-Carter 1980: “Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?” With that one line, “The Gipper” sealed the election and made Carter a one-term President.
3. Bush-Gore 2000: People often forget Gore was winning slightly in the polls, and most thought he was winning the first debate. Until his creepy “in your space” moment when he walked right next to Bush while he was answering a question. Bush’s cool response helped turn the polls in his favor.
4. Obama-Romney 2012: The tale of two debates … all pundits proclaimed Romney wiped the floor with Obama in the first of their three debates. Many left-wing media outlets were in a state of panic. Obama rallied with a factually questionable, but sterling performance in debate number two. The moderator, Candy Crowley, rebutted Romney on a Benghazi question in which she was factually incorrect. He failed to correct the record, and the damage was done. Romney never recovered in the polls as Obama had a decisive win.
Many Presidential races are not going to turn on a single debate performance. However, given the personalities involved this year, most believed the debate would play a huge role in helping undecided’s become decided.
So what did the spin rooms have to say about the first debate in this historic Presidential election year:
I. Spin Room – 3 Reasons Trump Won:
1. Trump has presidential temperament. Clinton has only herself to blame –her campaign repeatedly attacked Trump on his temperament prior to the debate, saying he was unfit to hold high public office. By not attacking Clinton and remaining restrained most of the evening, Trump appeared more presidential.
2. Trump hit her on emails, foreign policy judgment. When he had the opportunity, Trump was able to remind the public of Clinton’s felony behavior. One of his best lines included: “I’ll release my tax returns—against my lawyer’s wishes—when she releases her 33,000 emails that have been deleted.”
3. Trump won the debate with the moderator as well. There were questions on the birther issue and tax returns, but no questions on Benghazi and the Clinton Foundation. Fox News had Lester Holt, the moderator, interrupt Trump 33 times and Clinton only 19 times. Clinton repeatedly went over the time limit and Holt did not interrupt. When Trump went over, Holt was quick to correct. Lastly, Holt had his “Candy Crowley” moment – when he corrected Trump on the facts when it was he, the moderator, who was wrong on the facts! Holt claimed “stop-and-frisk” was unconstitutional, when in reality, it is constitutional under the historic case of Terry v. Ohio. The public can sense the unfairness and the sense of the elites “rigging” the system … a biased moderator which Trump defeated.
II. Spin Room – 3 Reasons Clinton Won:
1. Clinton was polished, prepared, in command of her narrative. From paid family leave to China, Clinton clearly had the advantage in debate prep and policy skills. It was clear she had prepared and was on top of her game.
2. Clinton got to Trump on tax returns and his business dealings. Clinton undoubtedly had Trump on the defensive when talking about his tax returns and his business dealings. If Trump had been better prepared, this would have been easy to fend off. Instead, he wasted critical time trying to defend his business actions when the window had opened to counter-attack. It proved once again he can be baited … advantage Hillary.
3. Clinton put to bed the questions of stamina. Her answers on stamina, related to her service as Secretary of State, as well as her TV appearances, helped refute Trump’s attack lines on stamina.
Charles Krauthammer also had another important conclusion, “The draw goes to the challenger.” Post-debate polls were essentially green room focus groups, and not the sustained polling effort, which is conducted over several days. But the immediate numbers were a mix:
“Who won the debate?”
Time Magazine: 59-41, Trump
CBS: 54-45, Trump
CNN/ORC: 62-27, Clinton
As you can see, it is hard to determine a winner from these push-dial polls taken during and right after the event. More polling data will come out over the next week or so, and will give a more accurate picture as to how the debate affected the race.
It seems neither party landed a knock-out punch, but Clinton clearly shored her position. Some tracking polls in battleground states moved in her favor the next day September 27, 2016. Although those results were over several days and not just from post-debate polling.
In the end, the race appears to be getting down to the wire and it has an uncertain outcome. But you do not have to be uncertain with your investment portfolio. Many people have their money at risk in the stock market, and may not even realize the amount of risk they are taking. You can protect your retirement money against stock market losses and earn a reasonable rate of return. Our advisors are specialists in the area and will explain exactly how it works. Call today at 877-912-1919.